Introduction

The Nikkei 225 has snapped back sharply from early-April lows, reclaiming its Value-Zone inner band but stalling below the Value-Zone outer boundary. In this Guidance Sheet, we apply Dr. Glen Brown’s GATS Value-Zone envelopes across Daily, H4, H1, M60 and M30 time-frames, compute a volatility-weighted fair-value for the index, and overlay key macro drivers (including BOJ policy, Tokyo inflation and U.S. tariff risks) to structure high-probability trade plans for the coming week.

1. Fair-Value Analysis (Daily)

Daily Inputs (Apr 28, 2025):

• EMA 26 (D1) = 35 163.82
• EMA 50 (D1) = 36 065.25
• ATR 26 (D1) = 1 227.33
• ATR 50 (D1) = 1 002.01

Envelope Half-Widths:

Interpretation: Today’s close sits ~0.7% above FV but well within the fair-value band—suggesting the up-trend still has room, yet watches for retracements toward EMA 26 (35 163) as logical re-entry zones.

2. Key Levels for the Week

3. Multi-Timeframe Execution Plan

A. Daily (D1)

• Bias: Long while close > EMA 26 (35 164).
• Entries:
  • Break & hold above prior high (~36 100).
  • Shallow retest into 35 200–35 400 that holds on close.
• Stops:
  • Tight: just below 35 164 (EMA 26).
  • Wider: below 36 065 (EMA 50) if riding a larger swing.
• Targets:
  • 50 % at 36 065 (EMA 50).
  • Remainder to 41 422 (Inner upper) or FV_high (42 333).

B. 4-Hour (M240)

• Trigger: H4 close off H4 inner band (EMA 26_H4–√26·ATR₍26,H4₎ ≈35 200).
• Confirm: ADX₍25,H4₎ ≥ 25; PATS_MACD green.
• Stop: below ~35 150 (H4 inner lower).
• Partials:
  • 50% at H4 outer lower (EMA 50_H4–√50·ATR₍50,H4₎ ≈35 750).
  • 25% at H4 outer upper (~36 500).
• Trail: to H4 inner band on pullbacks.

C. 1-Hour (M60)

• Trigger: M60 pullback into inner envelope (~35 700–35 800) + PATS_MACD green & RSI > 50.
• Stop: below ~35 650.
• Targets: 1st at outer envelope (~36 100); 2nd at EMA 50_D1 (36 065).

D. 30-Minute (M30)

• Precision Entry:
  • Retrace into M30 inner band (~35 850–35 900).
  • Bullish hammer/engulfing off the band + DIGI-Stoch “Bullish Start.”
• Stop: below ~35 800.
• Micro-Targets:
  1. 25% at M30 inner upper (~36 000)
  2. 25% at EMA 50_M30 (~36 050)
• Trail: balance to H4 inner band.

4. Fundamental Catalysts & Outlook

• BOJ Policy (Apr 30–May 1): Rates likely held at 0.5%, with growth forecasts downgraded amid U.S. auto-tariff risks Reuters.
• Tokyo Core Inflation: Hit 3.4% YoY in April—its highest in two years, pressuring BOJ on future tightening Reuters.
• IMF Guidance: Expects BOJ to delay further hikes due to tariff uncertainty, pushing inflation goal to 2027 Reuters.
• U.S. Data Week: First-look Q1 GDP, Core PCE, ISM PMI and NFP (impact on global risk appetite & yen flow).

Macro View: A dovish BOJ stance plus persistent Tokyo inflation sets up a volatile yen that can amplify Nikkei moves. U.S. tariff headlines remain a spoiler; watch JPY crosses and US‐Japan talks for sudden shifts in risk sentiment.

5. Weekly Workflow

1. Tokyo Open: Note JPY reaction to BOJ hints; check opening range vs daily inner band.
2. London Session: Hunt H4/M60 entries into envelopes; digest Euro and UK data.
3. New York: Trade off U.S. GDP/PCE (08:30–14:00 GMT) and later NFP (13:30 GMT).
4. Friday Close: Lock in partial profits; roll stops to breakeven or dynamic bands.

Stay disciplined—only trade long above your dynamic daily filters, respect ATR-based stops, and let multi-timeframe alignment guide your entries. Good luck this week!

Technical Guidance for April 25 Longs (Entry = 35 623.25; Wide Stop = 22 417.11; Long-Term Target = 104 209.95)
Current Price: 35 923.32

Introduction

On April 25, a group of disciplined traders went long the Nikkei 225 at 35 623.25, targeting a lofty 104 209.95 in the long term, with a wide safety net at 22 417.11. Now trading at 35 923.32, it’s time to shift from aggressive entry to prudent position management. In this briefing, Dr. Glen Brown lays out a clear, multi-timeframe plan—tightening stops, scaling profits, and using ATR-based Value-Zone filters—to protect gains and keep the bull trend alive.

1. Position Status

• Unrealized Gain: ≈ +300 pts (+0.84%)
• Original Risk: Huge (stop at 22 417 → 13 206 pt risk)
• Current R-Multiple: ≈ +0.02 R

2. Immediate Stop-Adjustment (Locking Profits)

1. Tighten your stop from 22 417 → Daily EMA 26 (35 163.82).
   • Now risking ~460 pts (~0.04 R) instead of 13 200 pts.
2. Alternatively, trail with the H4 Value-Zone inner band (EMA 26_H4 – √26·ATR₍26,H4₎ ≈ 35 150).

Either adjustment secures your April 25 gains and leaves room for a normal pullback.

3. Partial-Profit & Scaling Levels

• First Partial (50%) at Daily EMA 50 (36 065.25).
• Second Partial (25%) at the Daily Value-Zone inner‐envelope upper
    =  EMA26+√26⋅ATR26≈35164+6259=41423\;=\;EMA 26 + √26·ATR26\approx35 164+6 259=41 423=EMA26+√26⋅ATR26≈35164+6259=41423 (for the brave!).
• Let Runner (25%) ride toward Long-Term Target (104 209.95) with trailing stops behind the Daily EMA 26.

4. Multi-Timeframe Exit Filters

• H4: if a 4-hour close below 35 150, exit remaining.
• M60: if 1-hour close below 35 650, consider scaling out or flat.
• M30: if 30-min candle pierces the M30 inner‐envelope lower (~35 800) on strong momentum, tighten stops or exit.

5. Fair-Value Check

• Vol-Weighted FV: ≈ 35 661
• FV_Band: [28 989 ↔ 42 333]
• Current Premium: +262 pts (+0.7% above FV)
• Guidance: A pullback toward FV (35 661) is still “fair.” If price dips back there and holds, consider adding against your tightened stop.

6. Trend & Momentum Signals

• Daily ADX(25): ~22 ↗—trend still being born.
• PATS-MACD (D1): green “Trend/Up.”
• DIGI-RSI/Stoch: firmly in bullish territory across H4→M30.

7. Fundamental Catalysts

• BOJ Policy (Apr 30–May 1): any dovish drift could weaken the yen and lift the Nikkei further.
• Tokyo CPI (Apr): elevated inflation → mixed BOJ signals.
• U.S. Data (GDP, PCE, NFP): heavy-weight events that could trigger cross-asset rotations.

8. Weekly Price‐Action Plan

• Monday–Tuesday (BOJ week): hold above EMA 26; use H4 pullbacks into 35 200–35 300 for additions.
• Mid-week: gauge U.S. surprises—if USDJPY spikes, tighten stops or pare.
• Friday (NFP): lock remaining runners above 36 000 or trail to breakeven.

Bottom Line: You’re in a small profit on a massive risk—tighten stops immediately to Daily EMA 26 (35 163) or H4 inner band (35 150). Scale out in two tranches at 36 065 and 41 423, let a small core run to your 104 209 target, and manage the balance with multi-TF envelope filters and fundamental catalysts.

About the Author

Dr. Glen Brown is President & CEO of Global Accountancy Institute, Inc. and Global Financial Engineering, Inc., with over 25 years in proprietary trading, risk engineering, and quantitative strategy development. He is the creator of the Global Algorithmic Trading Software (GATS) framework and the Global 9-Tier Trading System. Dr. Brown holds a Ph.D. in Investments & Finance and guides an internal Prop. desk that applies advanced ATR-based envelope models, volatility-weighted fair-value analytics, and AI-driven sentiment overlays to capture consistent alpha across global markets.

Risk Disclaimer

This material is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading equity indices and derivatives involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should perform their own due diligence and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Neither Dr. Glen Brown nor Global Accountancy Institute, Inc. assumes any liability for losses incurred through the use of this guide.

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