Engineered Defaults
The Self-Judging Machine, Paper IV. Why a trading system should neither wait for evidence nor fit to it: derive the default, bound it, and let evidence earn every change.
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Public Doctrine Series
The Martingale Ledger
The Self-Judging Machine, Paper I. Why a trading system's closed results flatter it, and the century-old theorem that tells the truth on day one.
ReadWho Collects the Toll
The Machine Readings, Paper VIII. A liquidity provider’s small edge becomes near-certain through frequency; the same arithmetic condemns a taker whose toll exceeds its edge. Why a machine must make its edge positive before it makes it frequent.
ReadThe Toll and the Clock
The Machine Readings, Paper VII. With the bank and the stop fixed at birth, speed decides when a position resolves and the cost of entering decides which way the book goes: why a law keyed on the toll needs no clock.
ReadThe Engineered Monetary Framework
The whole Monetary Engineering series in one specification: the policy rule, the instruments beside it, the inflation target, the mortgage reset cap and the fiscal arm, with the conditions under which each rule holds and the evidence behind every one. The place to start.
ReadFiscal Space Is a Price
When public debt carries a risk premium, what decides whether a fiscal backstop is safe is the marginal cost of the next point of debt, not the debt ratio. An eigenvalue condition separates convergence from a doom loop, and a rule that obeys it cuts sovereign crises by more than nine-tenths.
ReadThe Backstop at the Floor
A fiscal rule written into law in advance, firing only when the interest rate is pinned at its floor, removes the deflation trap and costs nothing elsewhere. Its debt converges only if the government consolidates as monetary room returns, and with it in place an economy needs about a point less room.
ReadThe Half-Credible Economy
The engineered monetary framework tested under forward-looking expectations. It beats the best conventional rule at every forward weight once its mortgage easing is bounded, and partial credibility proves more dangerous than none: the room an economy needs is four to five points, not four.
ReadRoom Above the Floor
The inflation target is not one number for every country: it is the room an economy needs above the interest-rate floor. As revised later in the series, four to five minus the neutral real rate for a central bank acting alone and three to four with a fiscal backstop in law, lower where mortgages float, and never paid for by borrowers or bank capital.
ReadThe Better Ways
A monetary framework rebuilt on the levers that survived testing. Against the strongest conventional interest-rate rule it serves households and price stability at once: seven tests set in advance, seven passed.
ReadA Rebate Is Not a Deposit
The Machine Readings, Paper VI. How a two-cent cashback, filed by the broker beside the owner’s deposits, re-based a book’s capital twenty times in two days, and why a classification error is measured by what it triggers rather than by what it costs.
ReadThe Clock Is Not a Protector
The Machine Readings, Paper V. Why a drawdown circuit must be opened by recovery and not by midnight, and how far below its trip level the door should open: a number measured from the circuits’ own readings rather than chosen.
ReadA Deposit Is Not a Recovery
The Machine Readings, Paper IV. One book, one evening, seven measures of the same loss: why every return must be read against the capital of its own moment, and what an instrument must never call healing.
ReadScheduled Gaps
The Machine Readings, Paper III. Why a known event kills the positions born a week or two before it, not those born on its eve, and what a calendar can and cannot do.
ReadThe Occupied Book
The Machine Readings, Paper II. A fair walk is fair in money but not in time or in capacity: why the open book is made largely of the positions that will fail, and why edge must be priced by the day.
ReadThe Seven-Day Horizon
The Machine Readings, Paper I. Why a trading ledger reports its successes in hours and its failures in weeks, and what that does to every early verdict on a new rule.
ReadTwo Fears, One Discount Rate
The Engineered Long End, Paper VI. Bond yields, inflation, and a market that alternates between two fears acting through one discount rate: why the hedge works in one regime and fails in the other, and why the index complex splits by duration.
ReadA Contract on a Measurement
Public Doctrine Series. Jamaica’s catastrophe bonds after Beryl and Melissa: why the parametric trigger the house criticised in 2024 paid in full, and why the real gap was scale, not design.
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